Finding the value in midfield early with such clear premium captaincy options could be the difference between a top 100k finish and a top 10k finish. I have used Understat.com for the xG and xA figures using in this article.
Comparison
I’ve taken the top scoring midfielders from between £6.0m-£7.5m with a couple of other exciting prospects from last season. This analysis avoids any new signings and a few other previously impressive players, such as Sanchez and Ozil, as realistically, not many of us will be gambling on them day 1. All expected outputs are based on 90 minutes.
| Name | xG | xA | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Silva | 0.30 | 0.38 | 0.68 |
| Martial | 0.44 | 0.18 | 0.62 |
| Fraser | 0.13 | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| Hudson Odoi | 0.23 | 0.36 | 0.59 |
| Pedro | 0.30 | 0.20 | 0.5 |
| Maddison | 0.23 | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| Brooks | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.48 |
| Willian | 0.18 | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| Moura | 0.32 | 0.07 | 0.39 |
| Miliovejic | 0.28 | 0.09 | 0.37 |
| Perez | 0.25 | 0.12 | 0.37 |
| Redmond | 0.22 | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| Felipe Anderson | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| Doucoure | 0.20 | 0.16 | 0.36 |
| Zaha | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| McNeil | 0.10 | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| Townsend | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
For me a couple of these results are surprising. Silva would be a great asset if we could guarantee his game time, and Martial looks like a real differential from a struggling Manchester United side. Fraser is a top option, with Hudson Odoi who actually hugely underperformed his underlying stats a near must at £6.0m if he comes back fit and gets in the team. I’ve included the other 2 Chelsea wingers, which Pedro comes out on top in that battle, with Willian performing pretty well. Interestingly David Brooks has basically the same expected output as the much lauded James Maddison.
I expected more from Perez, Felipe Anderson and Zaha so I will wait and see how their season starts.
I’ve taken these players expected stats and for comparison purposes produced results if all of these players were to play 33 games. Obviously this is very difficult to predict as game time for many of these players could be restricted by rotation or injury, but below are the results
| Name | Predicted goals in 33 games | Predicted assists in 33 games |
|---|---|---|
| David Silva | 10 | 13 |
| Martial | 15 | 6 |
| Fraser | 4 | 15 |
| Hudson Odoi | 8 | 12 |
| Pedro | 10 | 7 |
| Maddison | 8 | 8 |
| Brooks | 8 | 8 |
| Willian | 6 | 9 |
| Moura | 11 | 2 |
| Miliovejic | 9 | 3 |
| Perez | 8 | 4 |
| Redmond | 7 | 5 |
| Felipe Anderson | 5 | 7 |
| Doucoure | 7 | 5 |
| Zaha | 6 | 5 |
| McNeil | 3 | 6 |
| Townsend | 5 | 4 |
Based on this analysis I am unlikely to consider any of the players from Miliovejic downwards unless I see an upturn in form.
David Silva (£7.5m) – Manchester City
Silva is in his last year at City, and even though he is clearly a great player I expect his game time be reduced from this prediction. If you can select him when he plays you can get high rewards, but playing Pep roulette may not be worth it, unless you’ve got an adequate deputy on the bench.
Anthony Martial (£7.5m) – Manchester United
Martial could be a real differential. Playing from the left, or up front he is a goal threat and people forget that when Man U paid a fortune for him he was one of the most sought after attacking talents in the game. United have a tough start with Chelsea (H) but then play Wolves (A), Palace (H), Southampton (A), Leicester (H) and West Ham (A), which is a decent run. With a couple of pre-season games left he is one to keep an eye on, and he could have a top season this year.
Ryan Fraser (£7.5m) – Bournemouth
Fraser is a guaranteed starter and a points machine in an attacking Bournemouth side. He has great fixtures to start with in Sheff Utd (H) and Aston Villa (A), but then they hit City (H), Leicester (A) and Everton (H) before the fixtures open up again. He’s likely to be involved in over 1 in 2 goals Bournemouth score, so if you think they’ll score against the three tougher teams he could be a great set and forget option.
David Brooks (£7.5m) – Bournemouth
A cheaper Bournemouth option is Brooks. Same fixtures as Fraser, and seemingly just as nailed on he had a breakout season last year and it will be interesting to see if he can follow that up this season. Predicted to match Maddison who is +£0.5m more expensive and outscore players like Perez and Felipe Anderson, Brooks may well make it into my team for GW1.
Hudson Odoi (£6.0m), Pedro (£7.0m) & Willian (£7.0m) – Chelsea
Chelsea’s assets of Hudson Odoi, Pedro and Willian are interesting prospects. They are likely to share gametime with Pulisic (£7.5m) who is a bit of an unknown, but if we can see in the early weeks who Lampard favours you could be onto a great thing with all 3 players expected to perform well. Chelsea start with Manchester United (A), Leicester (H), Norwich (A), Sheffield United (H) and Wolves (A).
Hudson Odoi put up great underlying stats last season, even if his output before injury didn’t really support his performances. Teams still don’t know that much about him, so I expect he will have a breakout year this season, as long as his return from injury goes smoothly. His price makes his a possible real bargain, once fit and if he gets straight in the team I expect his ownership to be off the scale.
Pedro and Willian will probably share quite a lot of gametime, but with Hazard gone, Willian could be the main set piece taker for Chelsea when he is on the pitch. Pedro is such a consistent performer, and Willian a bit more of a maverick, but if injury dictates that one or the other is the only option they could be a really solid pick at £7.0m.
James Maddison (£7.0m) – Leicester
Finally James Maddison had a great first season in the Premier League last year and I expect him to follow that up in an attacking Leicester team that has a great goalscorer and impressive support around him. Set piece taker and all round creative force he can unlock top defences with his passing range and could be a gem behind Vardy with Tielemans running the midfield. Leicester’s opening schedule is Wolves (H), Chelsea (A), Sheff Utd (A), Bournemouth (H) and Man Utd (A)
Verdict
At £7.5m I would be choosing Fraser for the first 2 gameweeks. Good fixtures, a solid pick after that, but it also opens up the option of seeing which other midfield assets managers like in the first couple of weeks.
At £7.0m Maddison has to be the choice for the start of the season. Guaranteed starter in a solid team which will score goals, his fixtures are on the more difficult side, but he’s a solid option at £7.0m.
£6.5m is a no brainer in David Brooks. Same fixtures as Fraser, more of a goal threat, but less likely to provide assists. If you can get a couple of attacking returns in those first few games, and then look to the Chelsea starting wingers after that it could be a potent start to the season for your mid-priced midfielder choice.
£6.0m will be Hudson Odoi this year, as long as his recovery from injury stays on course. You cannot ignore his underlying stats and I expect a huge year from this prodigy.
Written by @LotmerFPL
