The flavour of the month with FPL managers on Twitter is the rise of the premium defender as last year saw 7 players score more than 200 points, and two of those were Andy Robertson and Virgil Van Dijk. I’m going to run the rule over the five 6.5m+ defenders available this year and the merits of their inclusion in your gameweek 1 team.
Andy Robertson, Liverpool (£7.0m)
Robertson has become a mainstay in the Liverpool team over the last year and a half. Last season he played 36 games and got 11 assists. He’s Liverpool’s only option at left back and looks like one of the best in the world.
He was part of a defence which kept 21 clean sheets and only conceded 22 goals last season, and an attack which scored 89 goals! Robertsons part in this defence and attack is huge, being the team leader in tackles made (80) and being their second most creative player with 11 assists and 2396 passes.
Liverpool have a solid start to the season with Norwich (h), Southampton (a), Arsenal (h), Burnley (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a) in their first 6 games and there is clearly plenty of clean sheet and attacking potential in those fixtures.
Trent Alexander-Arnold, Liverpool (£7.0m)
TAA only played 28 games, amassed a huge 13 assists and popped up with one goal. He has hit the world stage, playing in two consecutive Champions League finals and looking increasingly comfortable as one of the best young fullbacks in the world.
As with Robertson, he was part of a defence which kept 21 clean sheets and only conceded 22 goals last season, and an attack which scored 89 goals. Defensively TAA contributed 61 tackles and 35 interceptions (both 2nd in the team) as well as 62 clearances(3rd in the team).
Just as with Andy Robertson, Liverpool have a solid start to the season with Norwich (h), Southampton (a), Arsenal (h), Burnley (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a) in their first 6 games and there is clearly plenty of clean sheet and attacking potential in those fixtures. However there is the possibility that a returning Joe Gomez could be rotated in for TAA, however his rise in the 2nd half of last season makes him look like an amazing fantasy option.
Virgil Van Dijk, Liverpool (£6.5m)
Van Dijk, the future Ballon D’or winner was a real threat from set pieces getting 4 goals, and with the space he was afforded from the back and his pinpoint passing he also chipped in with 4 assists.
Unsurprisingly VVD lead the team in Aerial battles won (181), Clearances (199), Interceptions (40) and possibly more surprisingly passes made with 3027. This contributed hugely to Liverpool’s clean sheet tally of 21.
No one will touch VVD place in this team and I expect him to be a near ever present as he was last season. As with the previous Liverpool defenders they have a solid start to the season with Norwich (h), Southampton (a), Arsenal (h), Burnley (a), Newcastle (h), Chelsea (a) in their first 6 games and I expect he will amass a solid points total over those fixtures.
Aymeric Laporte, Man City (£6.5m)
Laporte is pretty much the first name on Man City’s team sheet, is hugely comfortable on the ball and can fill in at left back. He got 3 goals and 3 assists to cement his place as their best defensive option.
He was their rock at the back, leading the team in Aerial Battles won (78), Clearances (95) and also making 39 interceptions. In a team that keeps the ball so well he also lead the team in passes made with 2998 and this contributed to Man City’s 20 clean sheets and 95 goals.
City also have a good start to the season, playing West Ham (a), Spurs (h), Bournemouth (a), Brighton (h), Norwich (a) and Watford (h) so I expect them to hit the ground running. I would expect at least 3 clean sheets in those fixtures.
Marcos Alonso, Chelsea (£6.5m)
Alonso played in a more defensive team than in previous years but still amassed 8 assists and 2 goals in 31 games. His time on the pitch was reduced with the emergence of Emerson Palmeri as a genuine threat, however his game time was still considerable.
Chelsea have the uncertainty of a new manager, and fantasy managers have the uncertainty of how they will set up, but last season Alonso contributed towards a team which kept 16 clean sheets but conceded 39 goals. He also contributed 74 tackles and 86 clearances (both 3rd in the team)
Chelsea’s first 6 fixtures are Man Utd (a), Leicester (h), Norwich (a), Sheff Utd (h), Wolves (a) and Liverpool (h) so only two great games in that. I think it may be worth seeing how the season starts for Chelsea before getting too carried away with Alonso.
Comparison
As a way of comparing all five players I have looked at their points per 90 minutes played.
Trent Alexander Arnold – 6.77
Andy Robertson – 5.96
Virgil Van Dijk – 5.53
Marcos Alonso – 5.25
Aymeric Laporte – 5.21
To make a fair comparison we will look at a points prediction based on all players playing 33 games (allowing for rotation and injury) and their points per 90 minutes last season. The points predictions for the five premium defenders would therefore be:
TAA – 223 Points
Robertson – 197 Points
Van Dijk – 183 Points
Alonso – 173 Points
Laporte – 172 Points
If we take this a step further and for comparison purposes in the future with other positions this would amount to the following points per million:
TAA – 32 Points per Million
Robertson – 28 Points per Million
Van Dijk – 28 Points per Million
Alonso – 26.7 Points per Million
Laporte – 26.5 Points per Million
Verdict
This year I am a real advocate of the big at the back theory, and having run the numbers for premium defenders I am happy to stick with it.
Trent, if he can make the right back spot his own could be a fantasy legend. I am slightly worried about Gomez coming back, but TAA’s output can’t be ignored and I expect Gomez to slot in alongside Van Dijk more often than not.
Robertson is one of the best left backs in the world, with the attacking outputs to match and is a great option. He also played 36 times last year which could bump his points up even further from my predictions.
Van Dijk is a Rolls Royce. He’s a huge threat in the box, is great on the ball and the first name on the Liverpool team sheet. If anything I can see the liverpool backline getting better with Gomez coming back so he is another amazing option as a premium defender.
Laporte is the one guaranteed starter in the City defence, but with no definite partner at the time of writing I think he could be worth skipping for the start of the season.
For me Alonso is the one premium defender I am wholly looking to avoid, even though his base stats look brilliant. I need to see how Lampard will set up, and the Chelsea fans really turned on him last year. He could end up behind Emerson, or he could end up being the points machine he has been in previous years. It may be worth leaving it the first few gameweeks to see how the land lies.
Personally I have both TAA and Robertson in my 11. I could be tempted to switch Robertson to Van Dijk, but I will be starting the season with 2 of the 3 simply because the numbers support their overall value to my team!
I’d love to discuss this with everyone, my twitter handle is @LotmerFPL so I look forward to hearing from you.
Written by Lotmer FPL (@LotmerFPL)
