Premium Forwards – Fantasy Football Tips

Premium attackers are usually and historically the creme de la creme of the league, fantasy points machines. Who doesn’t want a goalscorer, a penalty taker, a talisman and certain starter all rolled into one. This year we have the choice of 3; Aguero, Aubameyang and Kane. Consistent captain options, consistent players and playing for 3 of the likely top 6. Which one of 2 will you pick? Or do you feel like you can go without any of them? Lets see what the stats say

Sergio Aguero, Man City (£12.0m)

Aguero is one of the best strikers the premier league has ever seen. The city talisman scored 21 goals and got 11 assists last year on the way to City lifting the title. He’s their penalty taker and last year he beat off competition from Gabriel Jesus to start the vast majority of games, even if his minutes suffered due to Pep’s tactic of replacing him between 60-75 minutes.

Aguero had an xG of 19 and an xA of only 5, so he outperformed his expected stats per 90 minutes, but if we can trust him to be on the pitch for a full 90 minutes we could expect a return of around 23 goals and 6 assists next season if he were to play 33 games. Augero contributes a goal every 0.71 games and an assist every 0.19 games, therefore you can expect an attacking output in nearly every game he completes.

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City also have a good start to the season, playing West Ham (a), Spurs (h), Bournemouth (a), Brighton (h), Norwich (a) and Watford (h) so I expect them to hit the ground running. Aguero will very likely start these games, however Gabriel Jesus has been given the number 9 shirt, and has looked dangerous so he could get a few more minutes this year with City really looking to win the Champions League.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Arsenal (£11.0m)

22 goals for PEA in the equivalent of only 30 games makes him the sharpest marksman in the Premier League last year, sharing the golden boot with Salah and Mane. He also contributed 7 assists in a solid Arsenal team. He managed to do this whilst sometimes playing from the left, and Arsenal really didn’t perform consistently against the bigger teams last year.

PEA had an xG of 0.77 and an xA of 0.16, implying he will get you an attacking output nearly every 90 minutes. If he can play 33 games next year we can expect a return of 25 goals and 5 assists, a very solid figure and possibly another golden boot could be in the offing.

Arsenal’s fixtures to start with are Newcastle (a), Burnley (h), Liverpool (a), Spurs (h), Watford (a) and Villa (h). Quite a mixed bag, but captaincy potential in 4 of 6 and possibly a plum fixture against managerless newcastle to start with.

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Harry Kane, Spurs (£11.0m)

Kane has been world class in the last couple of years, Premier League golden boot winner, World Cup golden boot winner and Tottenham’s talisman. Last year however he had some injury problems and only managed to play 27 times, however he still managed an impressive 17 goals and 6 assists.

Kane had an xG of 0.6 and an xA of 0.17, so if we can get a pretty injury free season we could expect a return of 20 goals and 6 assists. I would actually think this could be higher, given his injury problems plagued him through the minutes he did play, so don’t be only caught up on his expected returns.

Spurs start to the season is Villa (h), City (a), Newcastle (h), Arsenal (a), Palace (h) and Leicester (a). That’s probably 3 solid captaincy options in the first 6, so if you can find another option for GW 2,4 and 6 you could have a very potent start to the season.


As a way of comparing the 3 players I have looked at their points per 90 minutes played.

Aguero – 7.4
Aubameyang – 6.8
Kane – 5.9

To make a fair comparison we will look at a points prediction based on all players playing 33 games (allowing for rotation and injury) and their points per 90 minutes last season. The points predictions for the 3 premium Strikers would therefore be:

Aguero – 243
Aubameyang – 224
Kane – 196

If we take this a step further and for comparison purposes in the future with other positions this would amount to the following points per million:

Aguero – 20.2 Points per Million
Aubameyang – 20.3 Points per Million
Kane – 17.8 Points per Million


In my opinion you will need either 1 Premium midfielder and 1 Premium striker, or 2 Premium midfielders in you squad this year. They are consistent captain picks, will play the majority of games and have great attacking outputs as was proven last year.

Clearly from the expected returns, Aguero and Aubameyang are solid choices. Aguero however takes a City place you could possibly use elsewhere, whereas Arsenal fantasy options are limited.

Kane could hugely outperform these numbers if he is fully fit and back to his best, and with Alli released more with the signing of Ndombele he will be one to certainly keep an eye on.

An interesting way to look at the points per million for the Premium midfielders and attackers is that as they are consistent captaincy options, and therefore you can bump basically each player by 10 points per million. This makes all 3 options a near 30 points per million pick, up there with TAA and Robertson as real value picks.

Personally I am looking towards the next tier down for strikers at the moment. The 4 points per goal and no clean sheet extras just make premium midfielders more necessary for me, but I am worried about being burnt by huge captaincy hauls for these 3.

I’d love to hear you thoughts on this so feel free to contact me on twitter @LotmerFPL

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